Sunday, April 5, 2015

Leadership Debate Review

So on Good Friday there was the main (at least I think it was the main) UK party leaders debate. Rather than pick a 'winner' as so many are tempted to do I will examine what goal each party leader had (or should have had) going into the debate and examiner whether they achieved that goal.

Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru): Going into the debate Plaid Cymru's Wood was a relative nobody compared to the other leaders, while the Green party's Bennett was included in the debate thanks to popular protestations, Wood was largely included just to maintain some semblance of objectivity with respect to the criteria for inclusion. Thus her goal was simply to raise awareness that she and her party exist in the national consciousness. She attempted to achieve said goal simply by repeating her party's name as often as possible. However her most memorable moment was when she told Farage he should be ashamed of his anti-HIV positive immigrant rhetoric. Overall she did managed her goal, much of the UK will now recognize "Plaid Cummri" as a Welsh-national party though many will still struggle to spell it.

Natalie Bennett (Green): The Green party has a large amount of popular support but it is dispersed making it difficult to turn into seats in the House particularly as many left-wing voters will vote strategically to avoid a Conservative or UKIP candidate winning. In addition, Bennett needed to overcome a blunder in a radio interview over the costing of their plans. Bennett made many good, well thought-out points during the debate (though these were often ideological rather than policy-oriented) and generally came out of it looking respectable. However she failed to make the Greens stand out as significantly different from the other left-leaning parties and only made a weak attempt to address strategic voting in her closing statements.

Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): The SNP has maintained strong support in Scotland since the referendum and are expected to win the brunt of seats there, and since the SNP isn't running candidates outside of Scotland Sturgeon was not trying to win votes during the debate. Rather her goal was to assuage English fears of Scottish independence in order to make the SNP a viable coalition partner (or negotiation partner) in the likely case of a minority government being elected but without alienating their pro-independence Scottish support. This she did as much as possible frequently engaging with the other leaders on various issues defending a left-wing, pro-multiculturalist vision for the UK as a whole. The moderator also did her a large favour by quickly steering discussion away from Scotland-specific issues and criticisms of the behaviour of SNP-Holyrood just allowing Sturgeon the time to deny the criticism levelled at her by the other leaders before moving on.

Nigel Farage (UKIP): Farage (as opposed to UKIP more generally) is running on the angry-radical-protest ticket and doing shockingly well thanks to their focus on anti-immigration which has struck a nerve with a large segment of the population (who are least affected by immigration). Thus his goal was simply to embarrass or make a mockery of the other leaders. He managed both by repeatedly interrupting the other leaders to try and derail the debates on the NHS and the economy toward immigration. Unfortunately, the other leaders largely attempted to just ignore him and hope that he'll go away which actually back-fired and made Farage's rude interruptions seem warranted (to those already sympathetic to him). Plus when Farage challenged them to explain how they would control European immigration none rose to meet him thus conceding to him a major victory. The whole thing was sadly reminiscent of Black Mirror's episode "The Waldo Moment".

Nick Clegg (Lib Dem): Lib Dem support has evaporated since their many broken promises while in coalition. Thus Clegg's goal was simply to shore up as much support as he can from the base in the hopes of saving enough seats to be a deciding factor should there be another hung parliament. He did his best by emphasizing the importance of balance in their centerist politics thus giving him and his party a clear distinction from the other parties. However some of his thunder was stolen by the other minor parties, as Sturgeon and Bennett were both able to reasonably approximate his honest, principled argument style which garnered him so much support follow previous debates. Overall he performed well but it wasn't enough to overcome his existing baggage given the strong performance by Bennett.

Ed Miliband (Labour): Labour has the advantage of being the only realistic rival of the rather unpopular Conservative/Lib Dem candidates in many ridings but are being dragged down by the depiction/perception of Ed Miliband in the press. Thus, Ed's goal was to appear as 'presidential' as possible. He benefited from the rather low expectations much of the audience would have had for him. But he still hasn't perfected the art of speaking to a camera without looking awkward and uncomfortable. Overall his arguments were rather unexciting, he was on point and on message resolutely refusing to discuss any past transgressions by the past Labour governments but didn't manage to stick a barb into any of his opponents either. Labour thinks (rightly or wrongly) that its their election to lose and they are committed to running as such.

David Cameron (Conservative): The Conservatives have been bleeding support to UKIP and face difficulties due to the lack of economic recovery from the point of view of the average UK citizen (wages still haven't recovered and prices remain high follow the past couple years of high inflation). Cameron was running on his record of 'cutting the deficit' and promises that the UK needs to stick to the 'plan' and the average Joe will eventually see the benefits of the cuts he has made and plans to make to benefits. Cameron should have used the debate to really take on Farage while bringing up past Labour government deficits when ever Miliband tried to speak. But he didn't, he is running as an incumbent (despite not really being one it being a coalition and all). Overall he didn't do himself any damage but nor did he do himself any favours.